The Delicate Question of Taiwan

"Because Taiwan is historically part of China, and other countries are interfering with our discussions." "Taiwan won't cooperate, because Japan and the United States are supporting its position."

These are strong words for a society that is generally very mild and believes strongly in "indirect communication." So I told them we would engage in a "thought experiment" where we would talk about what would happen if China just let Taiwan be independent.

The immediate response was that then many groups would want independence, like Mongolia and Tibet. I said, fine, continue with the experiment, what would happen if you let everyone who wants to become independent. I told them about some of the very small nations in the Carribean.

The reply was that if every province becomes independent, then China will be full of warring factions, as it was historically. Small countries will have multiple parties, and they will war among each other, and political parties will come to power based on the strength of their militias. I reminded them that Europe spent a long time as warring factions, and has only recently emerged as the European Union. Chinese factions do not have a monopoly on past bad behavior, and China has the kind of strong cultural and economic ties that bind a country together.

I suggested that if sections wanted independence, they could leave China over time, giving them an opportunity to build a stable government before they left, and preventing the problem of violent factions. I pointed out that if China had a vote tomorrow, only a very few areas would really want to leave, and even those that left would still have strong cultural and economic ties. Most of China wants to stay together, and it may not fundamentally undermine Chinese nationality and Chinese identity if some small sections become independent.

I do not flatter myself that anyone was convinced that Taiwan should be permitted independence permanently, but I did ask that they try to keep an open mind. And the class had a useful experience in thinking about whether the worst they think can happen is in fact the worst thing that could happen.